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Age, Gender and Population Projections

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This section provides information about age, gender and population projections.

Age Distribution

The charts below present information, from the census, about the age of the population in Guelph and Wellington County.

Key Findings

In 2021 in Guelph, there were more people age 25 to 29 years compared to all other age groups. The age group of 80 to 84 years had the fewest people. In Wellington County (not including Guelph), the age group with the most people was 55 to 59 years and the age group with the fewest people was 85 years and older.

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People in Wellington County are older than in Guelph, Ontario, and Canada. In 2021, when compared to Guelph, Ontario, and Canada, Wellington County had a slightly larger proportion of residents who were 45 years old and older.

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Our population is increasing with more people in almost every age bracket, with a few exceptions. From 2016 to 2021, the number of people age 0 to 4 years, and 50 to 54 years decreased in Guelph. In Wellington County, the number of people age 15 to 24 years and 45 to 54 years decreased. In both Guelph and Wellington County, the proportion of the population age 60 years and older experienced the highest rate of growth, followed by the proportion of the population age 25 to 39 years.

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*Wellington County does not include the City of Guelph in the charts above.

Sources for 3 charts above:

Statistics Canada. (2022). (table). Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001. Ottawa. Released April 27, 2022.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E (accessed May 4, 2022).
Statistics Canada. (2017). Guelph, CY [Census subdivision], Ontario and Wellington, CTY [Census division], Ontario (table). Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released May 3, 2017.
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E (accessed June 26, 2017).

Looking for more information?

For more information about this measure, please download the excel file below.

Download Full Dataset

Gender Distribution

The chart below presents gender information, from the census, for people who live in Guelph and Wellington County. "Men+" includes people who identify as male and some non-binary persons (people who do not exclusively identify as men or women). "Women+" includes people who identify as female and some non-binary persons.^[1]

Key Findings

In 2021, the number of men+ and women+ in Guelph and Wellington County was similar, with slightly more women+ living in Guelph than men+.

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*Wellington County does not include the City of Guelph.

Source: Statistics Canada. (2022). (table). Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001. Ottawa. Released April 27, 2022. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E (accessed May 4, 2022).

Limitations

Sex refers to "a set of biological attributes", whereas gender refers to "socially constructed roles, behaviours, expressions, and identities".^[2] Prior to the 2021 census, information was gathered about sex (but not gender) according to two categories (male and female).^[3] For the 2021 census, the sex question was revised to sex 'assigned at birth' (male, female) and a question about current gender (male, female, other) was added.^[4] Results of the gender question are presented in the chart above. Due to the difference between sex and gender, and revisions made to the 2021 census, the 2021 census data for gender cannot be compared to previous census data for sex.

Looking for more information?

For more information about this measure, please download the excel file below.

Download Full Dataset

Population Trends

Population Growth

The chart below presents information, from the census, about the current and historic population in Guelph and Wellington County.

Key Findings

In 2021, the population in Guelph was 143,740 people and the population of Wellington County (excluding Guelph) was 97,286. Since 2016, the population of Guelph increased by 9.1%, while the population of Wellington County (excluding Guelph) increased by 7.0%. At the same time, population increases for Ontario and Canada were 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively.

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*Wellington County does not include the City of Guelph.

Sources:

Statistics Canada. (2021). Population and dwelling counts, 2001 census. [Archived]. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census01/products/standard/popdwell/tables.cfm
Statistics Canada. (2010). Population and dwelling count highlight tables, 2006 census. [Archived]. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/dp-pd/hlt/97-550/Index.cfm?Page=INDX&LANG=Eng
Statistics Canada. (2017). Wellington, CTY [Census division], Ontario and Guelph, CY [Census subdivision], Ontario (table). Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released November 29, 2017. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E (accessed March 4, 2022).
Statistics Canada. (2022). (table). Census Profile. 2021 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001. Ottawa. Released February 9, 2022. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E (accessed March 4, 2022).

Population Projections

The population projections presented below were developed by the Ontario Ministry of Finance using Statistics Canada's population estimates as of July 1, 2020 (which are based on the 2016 census) distributed by age and gender. Population change for subsequent years is then estimated based on projected births, deaths, and migration (immigration, emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration).^[5]

Key Findings

The population of Wellington County (including Guelph) is projected to increase by 48% (120,000 people) between 2021 and 2046. This is a higher rate of growth than Ontario's projected population increase of 35% (over 5 million people). Net migration is projected to account for the majority of all population growth between 2021-2046.^[5]The rate of growth is projected to decrease over time.

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*Wellington County includes the City of Guelph.

Sources:

Ontario Ministry of Finance. (2021). Populations by age and sex for the 49 census divisions. https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/population-projections/resource/03abe0d5-0995-4ce2-ad9d-e904d50106a5?inner_span=True
Ontario Ministry of Finance. (2021). Populations by age and sex for Ontario. https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/population-projections/resource/31376797-1e4c-4426-ba75-0d93f4bb9f45

While there is a projected increase in population among all age groups, some age groups are projected to increase at a higher rate. Between 2021-2046, the proportion of the population in Wellington County ages 0-34 years and 55-74 years is expected to decrease gradually, while the proportion of the population ages 35-54 years and 75+ years is expected to increase. The proportion of the population age 75+ years is projected to experience the highest rate of growth as the baby boomer cohort continues to age.^[5]

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*Wellington County includes the City of Guelph.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. (2021). Populations by age and sex for the 49 census divisions. https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/population-projections/resource/03abe0d5-0995-4ce2-ad9d-e904d50106a5?inner_span=True

Looking for more information?

For more information about this measure, please download the excel file below.

Download Full Dataset

Note

The census of the population is mandatory and conducted once every five years. The census gathers information from all Canadian citizens, landed immigrants and non-permanent residents (people who have a work or student permit or refugee status). The census captures information from the entire population about demographic, social, and economic characteristics.^[6]

References

[1] Statistics Canada. (2022). 2021 Census gender note. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/ref/gender-genre-eng.cfm

[2] Canadian Institutes of Health Research. (2020). What is sex? What is gender? https://cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/48642.html

[3] Statistics Canada. (2017). 2016 Census of Population: Age and sex release. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/ref/98-501/98-501-x2016002-eng.cfm

[4] Statistics Canada. (2022). Filling the gaps: Information on gender in the 2021 Census. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/ref/98-20-0001/982000012021001-eng.cfm

[5] Government of Ontario. (n.d.). Ontario population projections. https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections

[6] Statistics Canada. (2016). Census of population. http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3901